en.lettrevigie.comLa Vigie – English – The bimonthly geostrategic letter

La Vigie - English The bimonthly geostrategic letter Menu Home About LV 241 : Raids in the Middle East and the threshold of disuasion | NATO’s decoupling | Lorgnette: 7 years on Posted on 2 May 2024 2 May 2024 by A M Letter from La Vigie, dated 1st May 2024 Raids in the Middle East and the threshold of disuasion The reciprocal attack by Iran and Israel in April was the first direct aggression against the Hebrew state for decades: a threshold of escalation has been crossed. But it pits two powers on the nuclear threshold against each other: does the classic grammar of deterrence still apply? To read the article, c lick here NATO’s decoupling The entry of the first Russian troops into Ukraine prompted NATO member states to support the invaded country. European voices then proclaimed that the Alliance was being strengthened, as evidenced by the accession of Sweden and Finland. However, decoupling mechanisms (not just transatlantic) are at work, threatening the Alliance’s very survival. To read the article, click here Lorgnette: 7 years on 7 years after the 1st speech at the Sorbonne ( LV 107 ), 3 pages of text later, where does France and Europe stand? A list of successes, still implacable observations, progress to be made, incentives to build the European pillar of the Alliance, to implement common strategies, to apply the strategic compass, to rethink energy and agricultural policies, to use France’s nuclear weapons to protect Europe… There’s nothing fundamentally new here, apart from the fact that we can guess at the impact of farmers’ protests against rising energy prices. We have already dealt with these issues in a previous issue ( LV 237 ), which gives this speech a surprising tone. Can we keep repeating the same observations and the same proposals, betting on our listeners’ amnesia? Some of the German press echoed this perplexity, while French columnists did not hesitate to evoke a strategic rupture”… Europe is thus at a turning point in the face of uninhibited powers, the risk of falling behind, and the battle of the imagination. I have come to talk to you about Europe”, he said 7 years ago. What if we were now to take action? JOVPN Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue ( here ), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300 excl. tax): here, the different options. Photo credit: Chris Devers on Visualhunt Posted in Alliance , Europe , Nuclear Tagged Alliance , Decouling , EU , Iran , Israel , NATO , Nuclear , Speech Leave a comment on LV 241 : Raids in the Middle East and the threshold of disuasion | NATO’s decoupling | Lorgnette: 7 years on LV 240: India at the centre of the power game | War economy | Lorgnette: Junta in trouble Posted on 17 April 2024 17 April 2024 by A M Letter from La Vigie, dated 17 April 2024 India at the centre of the power game Changes in the strategic context, marked by the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific, are tending to give the Indian Ocean a central role. India, the only credible power in the region, is taking advantage of this to position itself at the barycentre of the power game, between non-alignment and multi-alignment. To read the article, click here War economy The war economy has returned to the public discourse in the wake of the war in Ukraine. Yet this concept belongs to historical circumstances (the twentieth century) that are far removed from the country’s current situation. So why are the authorities using this expression? To read the article, click here Lorgnette: Junta in trouble The Burmese junta continues to suffer setbacks. The Karen insurgents, who have rallied to the NUG (Government of National Unity), have just taken the town of Myawaddy, the most important crossing point to Thailand. Since the offensive launched last October, the junta’s opponents have scored a series of successes. While the junta retains control of the skies (thanks to Russian support), its troops on the ground are shaky. Defections are multiplying to such an extent that the junta decided in February to resort to conscription, which has exacerbated the population exodus. It is estimated that in the three years since the end of Burma’s democratic spring, the population of 54 million people has been made up of almost 100,000 refugees and 1.6 million displaced persons. Is this the end? It is too early to say, because for the moment it is mainly the margins of the country that are being taken over by the rebellion, not the ethnic Burmese heartland, which remains under the overall control of the regime. The regime has little support, but many of its neighbours fear, without saying so, a Burmese chaos. China, which is officially silent on the principle of non-interference, is unhappy to see the Burmese alliance unravel: its aim was to develop direct access to the Bay of Bengal. JOVPN Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue ( here ), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300 excl. tax): here, the different options. Photo credit: MEAphotogallery on VisualHunt.com Posted in Burma , Defence industry , India Tagged Burma , India , War economy Leave a comment on LV 240: India at the centre of the power game | War economy | Lorgnette: Junta in trouble LV 239: The long Tunisian road | Where is the front line ? | Lorgnette: Bleak Olympic games Posted on 3 April 2024 3 April 2024 by A M Letter from La Vigie, 3rd April 2024 The long Tunisian road After a lost decade, Tunisia, which was at the forefront of the Arab revolts, has handed over to Kaïs Saïed. A populist who is preparing for re-election at the end of the year, no one knows whether he has a plan or whether he will lock himself into certainties without a project. France has forgotten Tunisia. This silence must be used to rebuild ties. To read the article, click here Where is the front line? Curiously, our leaders tell us that our armies are engaged on the eastern flank”. But if the area between the North Cape and the Caucasus is the flank, where is the front? What is behind this geographical, tactical and doctrinal nonsense? So let’s have the courage to look the front in the face. To read the article, click here Lorgnette: Bleak olympic games Paris will be hosting the Olympic Games this summer, and it has to be said that the event is far from enchanting. The older generation will remember the good mood and pride that surrounded the 1992 Albertville Olympics. Nothing like that this year. For one thing, the geopolitical situation does not make the atmosphere very optimistic, and everyone senses that the Games could be the occasion for serious disruptions, whether cyber attacks or terrorist attacks. Secondly, the Olympic magic has disappeared and this great media machine produces a lot of noise but not necessarily dreams. Amateurism has faded to such an extent and the money machine is so visible that nobody really believes in the show. The prices advertised are insane, both in the stadiums and in the hotels. Finally, the disruption to everyday life is already there and is accelerating. The major transport works will not be completed and the municipal, regional and even national authorities are doing their utmost to come up with absurdities, encouraging Parisians and French people to flee the area. With such repulsive communication, how do you expect the party to start? Fleeing the Olympics? JOVPN Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue ( here ), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300...